Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 26/0719Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0508Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0343Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8088 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Mar), quiet levels on day two (28 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Mar 068 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 015/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 010/010-006/005-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/30 Minor Storm 05/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/30 Major-severe storm 20/10/40