SPC Mar 26, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 26 Mar 2018

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARLKATEX REGION SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...AND INCLUDING PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS WELL AS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible, primarily from southwest through central and northeast Texas Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to persist across the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern U.S., as well as over the eastern Pacific and adjacent western states. In between, a positively tilted upper trough extending from the northern Plains to the Southwest will advance slowly eastward with time. At the surface, a weak cool front extending from the upper Great Lakes region southwest to the southern Plains will move eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and southeast across the Ozarks/Texas through the period. ...Parts of central Arkansas and the Arklatex vicinity across much of Texas... The previously described cold front -- progged to make slow/steady southeastward progress across this region -- will focus relatively widespread showers and thunderstorms, mainly within isentropic ascent north of the boundary in an anafrontal regime. With relatively steep lapse rates to the cool side of the front, along with strong mid-level southwesterlies, CAPE/shear environment available will likely support organized/elevated convection, with primary risk likely to remain large hail. Locally gusty/damaging winds may occur with a storm or two that develop near the immediate front, before being undercut by the boundary. Models suggest that the greatest severe will evolve overnight across portions of the central and south Texas vicinity, spreading northeastward with time. A secondary area of severe storm potential remains evident during the late afternoon/early evening hours over the South Plains region, though will maintain only marginal/5% risk at this time in this region. ..Goss.. 03/26/2018 Read more



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