SPC MD 175

By Newsroom America Feeds at 26 Mar 2018

MD 0175 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR BIG COUNTRY OF TX INTO WESTERN NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND INTO SOUTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0175 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Areas affected...Big Country of TX into western north-central TX and into southwest OK Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 261707Z - 261930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop between 19-22Z. Large hail will be the primary severe risk. Isolated severe gusts are possible. DISCUSSION...Midday subjective surface mesoanalysis places a southwest-northeast oriented dryline from the Permian Basin into southwest OK and north into west-central OK. Temperatures range from the lower-middle 80s degrees F near the US 83 corridor to the lower 70s in central OK. Surface dewpoints range from the middle 60s in southwest OK to the lower 60s where temperatures are the warmest and greatest mixing has occurred. As the boundary layer continues to heat, the remaining weak convective inhibition will continue to erode and convective initiation is forecast in a general sense by mid afternoon (19Z-20Z). A moderately unstable airmass (MLCAPE ranging from 1500 northeast to 2500 J/kg near the Red River) amidst a strong 0-6 km shear (65 kt) will support an initial threat for supercells to evolve with a risk for large to very large hail. Later in the convective cycle, modification of the thermal profile coupled with additional storms developing largely parallel to the dryline will result in a gradual tempering of the hail threat. Isolated severe gusts are also possible with the storms. The risk for a brief/weak tornado will likely be minimized given the already observed reduction in the low-level hodograph per KDYX and KFDR VAD data and the models showing no hodograph enlargement given the veer-back-veer wind profile here-forward. ..Smith/Grams.. 03/26/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33449819 32059993 32000097 32210139 32770110 33530006 34609939 35029867 35059752 34669731 33449819 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0175.html

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