SPC Mar 26, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 25 Mar 2018

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with isolated large hail and marginally severe wind gusts will continue this evening across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Other storms associated with hail are expected to develop overnight from west-central Texas north-northeastward into Oklahoma and Kansas. ...Southern Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving through the southern High Plains. At the surface, a dryline is present from the western Texas Hill Country northward into southwestern Oklahoma with surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline mostly in the mid 60s F. This is contributing to a corridor of moderate instability to the east of the dryline where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE values from the 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Thunderstorms have developed along the northern part of strongest instability near the Red River early this evening. These storms are located in a strongly sheared environment. The WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth shows 0-6 km shear of 65 kt and the low to mid-level winds veer strongly with height. This along with steep mid-level lapse rates will support the supercell ongoing with isolated large hail. This potential for supercells will gradually diminish over the next hour or two as a capping inversion becomes re-established across a large part of the warm sector. The dryline will retreat westward into northwest Texas this evening into the overnight as another subtle shortwave trough approaches from the west. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature and increasing low-level flow should be enough for the development of elevated thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains after midnight. A few of the stronger elevated cells could have hail. ...Central Plains... The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving through the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, winds are backed to the east from northern Oklahoma into east-central Kansas where low-level moisture advection will continue this evening into the overnight. In response to warm advection, elevated thunderstorms are forecast to develop after midnight from central Kansas southward into north-central Oklahoma. This convection should expand in coverage across much of eastern Kansas and may affect northeast Oklahoma as well. Forecast soundings near Wichita and west of Topeka after midnight show MUCAPE above 2500 J/kg with effective shear around 40 kt. This should be enough for hail formation with the stronger updrafts. ..Broyles.. 03/26/2018 Read more



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