SPC Mar 25, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 25 Mar 2018

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models remain in reasonable agreement through day 4 (Wednesday), but ensemble spreads increase by day 5, primarily with regard to the speed and amplitude of positive-tilt shortwave trough as it continues through the Southern Plains and lower MS Valley region. In either case, by day 4 thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in frontal zone from a portion of southwest through northeast TX to the TN Valley. The moist warm sector south of ongoing activity will likely become moderately unstable across TX with weaker instability farther northeast into LA. Belt of stronger winds aloft will maintain sufficient deep-layer shear for storms to organize, and storms may undergo some intensification during the day as they continue southeast through the remainder of the TX warm sector. For days 5 and 6, storms will continue east through the Gulf Coast States along and just ahead of a cold front. Indications are that the southern-stream shortwave trough will weaken and deamplify as it ejects northeast and becomes absorbed in northern stream. But ensemble members are not in good agreement regarding the speed at which this process occurs. This in addition to likelihood of weak available instability in pre-frontal warm sector suggest low predictability of severe storms beyond day 4. Read more



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