Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar, 25 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 22/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/1955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18383 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Mar 069 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 006/008-016/022-020/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/35 Minor Storm 05/25/25 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/55/55