SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 22 Mar 2018

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper ridge over the western states will shift eastward to the High Plains today as an upper low moves northeastward from just off the coast of New England to the Canadian Maritimes. A shortwave trough over the eastern Pacific is forecast to develop eastward to southern CA and the adjacent Southwest through the period. West-southwesterly mid-level flow will increase this afternoon across much of the Southwest and adjacent southern/central High Plains ahead of the upper trough. A weak surface low is forecast to form over the central High Plains, with lee troughing becoming well defined over the southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High Plains... A modestly strengthening surface pressure gradient and increasing mid-level flow overspreading the southern/central High Plains will likely foster strong/gusty southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph across parts of southern AZ into southern/central/eastern NM, far west TX, southeastern CO this afternoon. An antecedent dry airmass is expected to remain over this region, and diurnal heating/mixing of the boundary layer will promote reductions of RH values generally into the 15-20% range for at least a few hours through peak heating. Guidance suggests fuels will remain dry and receptive to large fire starts, and elevated conditions should occur today. The forecast overlap of winds in excess of 20 mph and RH values below 15% appears too limited to include a critical delineation. ...Portions of the Southern FL Peninsula... A dry, post-frontal airmass will remain across the FL Peninsula today. Northerly winds around 10 mph will likely combine with RH values falling into the 25-35% range for at least a few hours. Portions of the southern FL Peninsula received a relative minimum of precipitation with the prior cold front passage, and fuels are generally dry/receptive across this area. Have therefore introduced a small elevated area across the southern FL Peninsula. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html

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