Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 21/0223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22143 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Mar) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Mar 069 Predicted 22 Mar-24 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 21 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar 014/018-012/016-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 25/20/25 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/45/55