Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 19/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1752Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21043 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (22 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (23 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Mar 069 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 013/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 013/016-016/020-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/35 Minor Storm 15/25/20 Major-severe storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/55/45