Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 18/2027Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 18/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 18/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7111 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (21 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Mar 069 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 069/068/068 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 010/012-009/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/30 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 20/20/40