SPC MD 134

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Mar 2018

MD 0134 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF TEXAS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY EASTWARD
Mesoscale Discussion 0134 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018 Areas affected...parts of Texas from the Hill Country eastward Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182031Z - 182230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may develop/increase over the next couple of hours, with attendant severe potential. WW may be needed. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front moving slowly north across north-central and northeast Texas, and a dryline mixing east into the Hill Country. While the warm sector airmass features dewpoints in the upper 60s, the boundary layer has been somewhat slow to heat/destabilize due to relatively widespread/multi-layer cloudiness. Clouds are gradually thinning, however, with resulting insolation helping to push surface-based CAPE above 1500 J/kg across the area. While the cu field remains relatively subdued over the discussion area per the latest visible satellite loop, some deeper cu is noted just west, near the dryline. With multiple CAM runs, and the operational GFS/ECMWF all showing convective development across the area this afternoon/early evening, is would appear possible that these hints of deeper dryline cumulus may gradually evolve into an area of thunderstorms in the next couple of hours. Along with ample CAPE, area VWPs confirm model forecasts of very strong west-southwest flow at mid levels, atop (rather weak) low-level southerlies. Resulting long hodographs would support supercells/splitting storms -- with large hail likely the main risk (in addition to locally gusty/damaging winds or even a tornado). We will continue to monitor cumulus evolution, as a cue for timing on any potential WW issuance. ..Goss/Guyer.. 03/18/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 29859809 30879796 31789733 32349630 32289485 31799444 31029452 30289484 29729671 29859809 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0134.html

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