Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 15/2208Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/1606Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13732 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Mar 069 Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 17 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 013/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 013/015-013/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 35/35/20