SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 14 Mar 03:03

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Dramatically increased fire weather concerns will develop across the Plains D2/Thursday afternoon in response to a couple of synoptic features: 1) Strengthening mid-level flow associated with a mid-level trough approaching the region and 2) A rapidly deepening surface flow centered over eastern Colorado. Each of the features will result in increased downslope flow across dry, drought-stricken areas of the Plains, resulting in elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Additionally, a heightened fire weather threat will once again redevelop in South Carolina as a dry airmass continues to reside in that area. ...Portions of the southern and central High Plains... The aforementioned increase in mid-level flow, in conjunction with favorable thermodynamic profiles for deep vertical mixing, will favor widespread areas of critical (20+ mph) southwesterly winds to develop - especially on the south side of the Colorado surface low. Areas of 30-40+ mph surface winds may also develop in an axis from northeastern New Mexico into the Panhandles beneath the strongest mid-level flow. RH values are in question, however, given the degree of mid-level cloudiness indicated in model guidance. The critical delineation introduced in this outlook highlights areas that have the greatest chance of sub-15% RH values amidst very strong (30+ mph) surface flow. Surrounding the critical, strong surface flow will still develop during the afternoon although critical RH is less certain. The critical delineation may need adjusting in later outlooks as additional, higher-resolution guidance becomes available. Additionally, point forecast soundings support isolated, fast-moving, and high-based thunderstorm activity especially across the western one-third of Texas. An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation has been added to the outlook to address this threat. ...South Carolina and far eastern Georgia... Westerly surface winds will approach 20 mph across the region in the afternoon - bolstered by a favorable surface pressure gradient and fast mid-level flow overspreading the region. Dry near-surface conditions also persist, with cured and dormant fuels supporting fire spread. Given the above conditions, an elevated fire weather delineation has been made for this outlook. ..Cook.. 03/14/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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