SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Mar 14:01

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southern/Central Plains... The elevated area has been expanded slightly across parts of western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. Meager initial moisture return should foster RH values around 20-30%, following the onset of deeper diurnal mixing. Combined with breezy winds around 15 mph and areas of receptive fine fuels, this dry environment will encourage elevated fire-weather concerns Wednesday. ...Southeast... Only change of consequence is a northeast expansion of the elevated area across more of South Carolina. Despite cool temperatures, downslope trajectories and related deep mixing will favor minimum RH values around 20-30%, amidst sustained winds upwards of 15 mph (with higher gusts). Subsequently, pockets of dry fine fuels will promote elevated concerns here during the day as well. ..Picca.. 03/13/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018/ ...Synopsis... The high pressure initially over the Ozarks at the start of the period will migrate southeastward toward the Mississippi Delta through midday as lee troughing organizes across Colorado/New Mexico. The strengthening surface gradient will result in enhanced low-level flow across the southern and central Plains along with areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Meanwhile across the Southeast, northwesterly surface flow will strengthen on the eastern periphery of the Delta anticyclone and result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions - particularly in Florida. ...Portions of the southern and central Plains... As the aforementioned surface pressure gradient strengthens across the region, southwesterly surface flow will increase to 20-25 mph along with a few higher gusts. The region will reside on the northern periphery of deeper moisture advection, with RH values falling to around 20-25% during peak heating periods - consistent with elevated fire weather thresholds. Locally/briefly critical fire weather cannot be completely ruled out - especially in northwestern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas where RH values will fall to near critical thresholds (20%) amidst dry fuels favoring rapid fire spread. ...Portions of the Southeast... 10-15 mph northwesterly surface flow will develop through the afternoon in response to the tightening surface gradient. A drier low-level airmass will also exist across the area, and insolation will result in areas of 25-35% RH values developing by mid-afternoon. Fuels are also dry and favor rapid fire spread. Given the aforementioned conditions, an elevated fire weather delineation has been made. A critical upgrade will be considered in later outlooks - especially if surface winds end up being stronger than currently depicted in model guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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