Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 11/1213Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/0407Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Mar, 13 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Mar 068 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/20