SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 8 Mar 2018

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CST Thu Mar 08 2018 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX... ...Portions of southern NM into western TX... The elevated area has been expanded eastward into western TX from portions of the South Plains to the Big Bend. Latest hi-res guidance suggests RH values will fall to near 15 percent and wind speeds of 10-15 mph with occasionally higher gusts are expected. Furthermore, an upgrade to critical has been made across portions of southern NM into far southwest TX. RH values will range from 10-15 percent with perhaps local values in the single digits. Sustained westerly winds around 15-20 mph with higher gusts also are expected. Should wind speeds trend higher further to the northeast, the critical area may need to be expanded into parts of southeast NM and western TX. ...Southeast WY into Northwest KS... The elevated area has been adjusted based on latest hi-res guidance and regional forecast sounding data. RH values generally will fall into the 15-25 percent range with northwesterly surface winds around 10-15 mph with higher gusts. Dormant fuels and drought conditions across parts of northeast CO into northern KS coupled with expected meteorological conditions, should support a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CST Wed Mar 07 2018/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge/eastern trough synoptic pattern will remain in place at the start of the D2/Fri forecast period, although this pattern will undergo some deamplification throughout the day as the eastern trough migrates offshore. Areas of strong (40-50 kt) westerly mid-level flow will continue to overspread dry areas of the central High Plains throughout the period. At the surface, a lee trough will gradually evolve into a closed low over western Kansas/western Oklahoma throughout the forecast period. To the west of this low, areas of breezy to windy conditions amidst a preexisting dry airmass will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Southeastern Wyoming southeastward to northwestern Kansas... A belt of 40-50 knot mid-level flow will overspread the region throughout the afternoon well downstream of an approaching shortwave trough. Thermodynamic profiles will favor vertical mixing of this higher-momentum air to the surface during the afternoon, resulting in widespread areas of 20-25 mph surface flow across southeastern Wyoming, western Nebraska and northeastern Colorado. Slightly weaker surface flow will exist farther east. Meanwhile, surface RH values will fall to around 20% in much of the area and slightly lower in northeastern Colorado. Given dry fuels across the region, an elevated fire weather delineation has been made. Locally critical fire weather conditions are possible in northeastern Colorado, where stronger surface flow will better coincide with near-critical (15%) RH values in the afternoon. ...New Mexico and far west Texas... Areas of 10-20 mph westerly surface flow will develop throughout the day in response to the gradually deepening surface cyclone in the Plains. Meanwhile, a preexisting dry airmass remains in place across the region, with 7-20% RH values becoming common areawide during the afternoon. An elevated fire weather delineation remains in place across the region for this outlook given dry fuels and rising ERCs. Although confidence is low, a couple of corridors of critically strong surface winds may develop (particularly from southwestern New Mexico into the El Paso area) although mid/upper support for stronger surface winds may be arriving to the region just a bit beyond peak heating. Model/observational trends will be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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