SPC Mar 8, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 8 Mar 2018

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Mar 08 2018 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Sizable model spread concerning interior southern U.S. frontal wave development continues into the beginning of this forecast period. However, it still appears possible that at least a modest surface cyclone may migrate into parts of the upper Tennessee Valley by 12Z Sunday. Even if this becomes the case, considerable preceding convective development may impede boundary layer moistening and destabilization inland of much of the northeastern Gulf coast, with the possible exception of coastal areas of the central/southern Florida Peninsula. There remain indications that at least moderate strengthening of wind fields and shear could coincide with the inland advection of moist potentially unstable boundary layer air around the Tampa Bay area Sunday morning. If this pans out, then a localized supercell/severe weather threat could evolve, before large-scale synoptic forcing shifts into and east of the south Atlantic coast as early as midday Sunday. There is much better consensus in the medium range model output concerning the initiation of considerably stronger cyclogenesis east/northeast of the Carolina coast late Sunday into Monday, continuing toward the Canadian Maritimes through the middle of next week. This is expected to occur as upper troughing amplifies once again near or just east of the Atlantic Seaboard, and amplified upstream troughing gradually shifts into and across the Pacific coast, with large-scale ridging overspreading the interior United States. In association with this regime, severe weather potential appears low across much of the nation, with the possible exception of an isolated severe weather risk across parts of the Sacramento/ San Joaquin Valley of California by next Wednesday or Thursday. Read more



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