SPC Mar 7, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 6 Mar 2018

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Tue Mar 06 2018 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms forming along and ahead of a cold front will pose a marginal severe-weather risk over west-central Florida overnight. ...Central portion of the FL Gulf Coastal region... A shortwave trough will track to the east-southeast through the Tennessee Valley to the Southeast States resulting in strengthening wind fields across the central Gulf coast and Southeast States. Moisture return /surface dew points in the lower-middle 60s/ from the Gulf of Mexico will spread across northern and central FL through tonight ahead of a cold front advancing southward across the peninsula. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms, currently located across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to develop and spread to the east this evening and overnight. The strongest and more persistent storms should remain mainly offshore across the eastern Gulf, though weak instability, given the boundary layer moistening, could prove favorable for a few of the stronger storms to move inland. Forecast soundings suggest surface winds should maintain a southerly component ahead of the cold front. This combined with weak instability and strengthening westerly winds in the lower-middle troposphere will result in low-level hodograph curvature supporting a severe risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong wind gusts. These threats will be greatest along the coastal areas of Florida's central Gulf Coast, where the greatest, though weak, instability is forecast overnight. ..Peters.. 03/07/2018 Read more



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