SPC Mar 6, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 6 Mar 2018

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Tue Mar 06 2018 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms forming along and ahead of a cold front will pose a marginal severe-weather risk over sections of the coastal Florida Panhandle today and west-central Florida overnight. ...Discussion... A cold front from the southern Appalachians southwest into the north-central Gulf of Mexico is expected to progress eastward during the period, as an occluded upper low over Iowa rotates across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The front is expected to extend from the Carolina Piedmont into the northeast Gulf by this evening, reaching the central Florida peninsula by the end of the period. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorm potential will persist as air mass modification continues over the Loop Current and low-level moisture gradually increases northeastward within the pre-frontal environment. Modest instability with MLCAPE around 500-750 J/kg will remain primarily over the Gulf waters with more marginal instability spreading into coastal sections of northwest Florida this afternoon and west-central Florida tonight. A pre-frontal convective line currently over southeast Alabama and far northwest Florida is expected to progress eastward this afternoon. VAD wind profiles in advance of the line indicate strong low-level and deep layer shear favorable to enhance storm organization, with some potential for brief rotation to develop within stronger embedded cells. Model guidance including CAM/HREF explicit storm attribute forecasts maintain a few weakly rotating updrafts mainly over the Gulf, although several UH tracks affect the immediate coastal regions of northwest Florida this afternoon. As storms along/ahead of the advancing cold front move into the eastern Gulf tonight and approach the west-central Florida coast, several stronger cells may affect the immediate coastal sections. Isolated strong wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado will be possible with stronger cells over the Marginal Risk area. ..Weiss/Dean.. 03/06/2018 Read more



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