SPC Mar 6, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 6 Mar 2018

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Tue Mar 06 2018 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe storms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Within a persistent blocking pattern, models indicate that a broad mid-level closed low will continue to evolve across the Northeast during this period, contributing to the maintenance of amplified cyclonic flow east of the Mississippi Valley through the western Atlantic. Upstream, large-scale mid/upper ridging appears likely to persist, particularly within consolidated branches of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude and subtropical Pacific, across the Southwest into the southern High Plains. To the north, a remnant cyclonic circulation approaching the Oregon coast early Thursday is forecast to accelerate inland. Considerable weakening and deformation of this feature is forecast within a confluent regime, but at least some flattening of broader scale ridging appears probable across the northern intermountain region. ...Northwest... In association with the inland migrating impulse, modest mid-level cooling may contribute to steepening lapse rates across parts of the Columbia Valley and Basin into the northern Rockies. There are some indications within model output that this could be sufficient to support weak thunderstorm development. However, at this time, it not clear that this will be more than very isolated and brief in nature (i.e. less than 10 percent probability/coverage). ...Elsewhere... The evolving pattern is expected to maintain generally stable conditions with negligible risk for thunderstorms. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2018 Read more



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