SPC Mar 2, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 2 Mar 2018

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Fri Mar 02 2018 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and northern California, and a large portion of Texas, Saturday through Saturday night. However, severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Large upper trough initially extending from the Pacific Northwest coast to the central CA coast will gradually shift eastward through the Great Basin as a shortwave trough pivots through its southern periphery. At the same time, downstream upper ridging will persist across the Plains and MS Valley with its eastward progress slowed by a mature cyclone off the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in overall pattern amplification. Surface pattern will feature a deepening lee low over the central High Plains and an additional low associated with the Pacific Northwest system developing over UT. High pressure (associated with the dry continental airmass in the wake of the northern Atlantic system) will persist east of the MS River. Some moisture return is possible on the southern/southwestern periphery of this ridge, encouraged by increased southerly low to mid-level flow. Highest thunderstorm coverage across the CONUS is anticipated across portions of northern and central CA where waves of generally cellular convection are expected amidst a steep lapse rates/cold mid-level temperature environment. Isolated thunderstorms are also anticipated within the warm-air advection regime across the southern Plains. There is also some indications of a fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting into the southern Plains during the late afternoon/evening. Sporadic lightning strikes are also possible across the eastern Great Basin as a frontal band progresses across the region. A strike or two may also occur within the strong isentropic ascent across the mid MO Valley. However, in both of these areas, thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 03/02/2018 Read more



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