SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 1 Mar 2018

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Mar 01 2018 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...FAR WESTERN KANSAS...AND A LARGE PART OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO... The ongoing forecast is generally on track. The critical area was expanded eastward based on latest guidance, which depicted a corridor of critically strong surface winds coinciding with 10-15% RH values extending across a larger part of northeastern New Mexico northeastward to far western Kansas. Farther east, strong southerly flow and dry fuels will support rapid fire spread, although latest guidance still keeps RH values at or above 20-30% through much of the afternoon. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 03/01/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CST Thu Mar 01 2018/ ...Synopsis... The Plains upper ridge will shift east on Friday as a large-scale upper trough digs across the west. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase across portions of the central to southern Rockies ahead of the upper trough, and a lee surface trough will develop across the central to southern High Plains. This will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Plains into northeast NM as strong surface high pressure remains over the Upper Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected across portions of the central/southern Rockies into the adjacent Plains for a few hours Friday afternoon. The main uncertainty at this time is in regards to RH values. High-res guidance currently maintains RH values in the 20-30 percent range across much of the southern Plains, where surface winds will generally be more south/southeasterly. Further west, lower RH values in the 12-18 percent range are forecast closer to the I-25 corridor across northeast NM into portions of southeast CO. Where lower RH values exist, critical conditions are expected as wind speeds near 20-25 mph with some higher gusts will align with very dry fuels. Wind speeds will be similarly strong across a broader elevated area encompassing parts of eastern CO, northeast NM, western into central KS, northwest OK and the OK/TX Panhandles. Both the elevated and critical areas may need to be adjusted as confidence in RH forecast increases. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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