Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 27/2242Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/1229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 637 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 069 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 069/068/070 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/20/15 Major-severe storm 15/10/15