Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (28 Feb) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 27/1531Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 27/1033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/1101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3341 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Feb 068 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 068/068/070 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 010/014-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/10 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/15