Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 26/1401Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2177 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Feb 070 Predicted 27 Feb-01 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar 010/014-006/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/15