Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/2123Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2610 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled levels on day two (27 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (28 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Feb 067 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 018/024-011/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/20/10 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 65/20/10