Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 23/1825Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 23/0641Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/0526Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1971 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 23 Feb 068 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 009/010-011/014-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/35 Minor Storm 10/15/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/50/65