Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 18/0815Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 808 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Jun 075 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 075/075/074 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/15/10