Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 16/2100Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 16/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 669 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (19 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (20 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jun 075 Predicted 18 Jun-20 Jun 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 17 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun 018/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jun 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 010/010-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun-20 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/10