Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 22/1609Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/1946Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5758 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Feb 068 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 010/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/20/20