SPC Feb 22, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 22 Feb 2018

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Texas and Oklahoma, with a few extending into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Small hail is possible across parts of northern Texas into Oklahoma during the day. ...Synopsis... A southwesterly flow regime aloft will persist from the southern Plains into the Northeast as an upper trough moves across the Rockies and into the High Plains by the end of the period. Meanwhile, and upper ridge will remain intact across the Southeast. At the surface, a stalled front from the middle MS Valley into southeast TX will retreat northward late in the day, with strengthening southerly wind profiles in anticipation of the approaching shortwave trough. The result will be a substantial area of elevated thunderstorms across much of central and northern TX into OK during the day, wither other activity developing across AR and MO as well. ...Northern TX into southern OK... While a cool surface air mass will remain in place, very strong warm/theta-e advection will occur during the day and into the evening with southerly 850 mb flow increasing to nearly 50 kt. This will occur beneath cool mid/upper level profiles, with long hodographs in the cloud bearing layer. A large area of elevated thunderstorms will occur across much of northern TX during the late morning and spreading into OK and toward the Arklatex later in the day. Some model differences exist as to how much activity will form and how cellular it may be. However, a marginal hail threat is possible with the stronger cores. A Marginal Risk may be required in later outlooks once predictability becomes greater. ..Jewell.. 02/22/2018 Read more



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