Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 20/2139Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/0746Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7036 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Feb 068 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb-24 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/15 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/25/20