SPC Feb 21, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 21 Feb 2018

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018 Valid 241200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... A significant shortwave trough will eject northeast through the central Plains and middle MS Valley region (Day 4) Saturday and Saturday night. Some deamplification is expected, but the trough will take on a more negative tilt as it approaches the middle MS Valley. GFS is still the stronger solution with deeper cyclogenesis and suggests potential for a slightly more robust severe threat. In either case a forced line of potentially strong to severe storms might evolve in vicinity of cold front initially over northeast TX, before spreading into the lower MS and TN Valley regions as the low-level jet strengthens and shifts northeast through moistening warm sector. While vertical shear and overall character of the wind profiles should be more than adequate for organized severe storms, primary limiting factor appears to be a marginal thermodynamic environment given likelihood of widespread clouds and weak lapse rates. Some severe threat might linger into Sunday (day 5) over a portion of the Middle Atlantic, but confidence is not high enough at this time to introduce a categorical area. Overall severe potential should remain low day 6 into day 7 as a cold front settles into the northern Gulf coastal area. Read more



[D] [Digg] [FB] [R] [SU] [Tweet] [G]