Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 19/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12611 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Feb, 23 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Feb 070 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/008-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb-23 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor Storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 30/40/25