Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 19/0807Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/1249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13452 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Feb 069 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 014/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 010/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb-22 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/15