SPC Feb 19, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Feb 2018

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are expected over the southern Plains this evening, expanding into the middle Mississippi Valley tonight. Sporadic lightning strikes remain possible along the California and southern Oregon coasts ...Southern Plains through the middle Mississippi Valley region... Weak impulses embedded within the southwesterly southern-stream flow will move northeastward through the Southern Plains and middle MS Valley region tonight. This in conjunction with modest isentropic ascent, theta-e advection and destabilization resulting from a strengthening southerly low-level jet will promote development of showers and thunderstorms tonight, initially over the southern plains, then gradually expanding northeastward through the middle MS Valley. Thunderstorm coverage should remain isolated over the Southern Plains where more substantial warming in the 850-700 mb layer will contribute to at least a modest capping inversion. A couple instances of small hail remain possible in this area where steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater instability reside. Eventually, more numerous showers and thunderstorms may form toward the middle MS Valley region late tonight or early Monday within zone of strengthening low-level theta-e advection. ..Dial.. 02/19/2018 Read more



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