Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 18/2047Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0325Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/2348Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2795 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Feb, 20 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Feb 070 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 011/014-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/15 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 30/30/20