SPC Feb 18, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 18 Feb 2018

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to occur from the southern Plains northeast to the Great Lakes. Showers -- and possibly a couple of lightning strikes -- may also occur over the Four Corners vicinity. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified flow field aloft will remain over the U.S. this period. Long-wave troughing will remain established over the western half to two-thirds of the country, as one embedded short-wave trough ejects northeast across the Plains but a second digs southward across the northwestern states toward the Great Basin -- thus resulting in quasi-stationary persistence of the long-wave feature. At the surface, cold polar air will continue spreading east and southeast across western and central portions of the country. A cold front at the leading edge of the cold surge will move east across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and southeast across the Ozarks and southern Plains through the period. While showers -- and possibly a few lightning strikes -- are expected over the Four Corners area, greater thunderstorm coverage will remain associated with the advancing cold front, within a zone from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Texas... Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected across much of central and eastern Texas during the period. Some convection may be ongoing early in the period, with more widespread precipitation spreading southeast with time as the front advances. At this time, it appears that thunderstorms associated with the advance of the front across Texas during the second half of the period will be largely -- if not almost entirely -- confined to the cool side of the front. Confluent flow aloft, and a lack of mid-level height falls, suggest that large-scale ascent should remain modest at best through the deeper troposphere atop the warm sector. As such, generally weak convection in an anafrontal-type regime is currently expected, which should hinder appreciable severe risk. ..Goss.. 02/18/2018 Read more



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