SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 17 Feb 2018

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely in a large part of Kansas and extreme northwest Oklahoma. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 02/17/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the High Plains evident on water vapor satellite imagery early this morning will move eastward to the Great Lakes and OH Valley by this evening. An upstream shortwave trough should move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies from this evening through the end of the period. Surface high pressure centered over the eastern CONUS will develop eastward off the East Coast, while lee troughing forms over the High Plains. A separate surface trough/front associated with the shortwave trough over the Plains should move southward across KS into parts of northern OK this afternoon. ...Portions of the Southern/Central Plains... Strong/gusty northwesterly winds around 15-20 mph, locally higher, will develop later this morning and afternoon across parts of KS into northern OK behind a surface trough/front. Although temperatures should not warm substantially due to some low-level cold air advection, an antecedent dry airmass and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will likely support RH values falling into the 15-25% range for a few hours through peak heating. Dry/dormant fuels remain in place across most of this region, and the forecast meteorological conditions support the continuation of an elevated area for parts of KS into northern OK. The southern extent of the elevated area (in northern OK) has been trimmed slightly due to ongoing light to moderate rainfall associated with a southern-stream shortwave trough. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass across this region precludes a critical delineation. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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