SPC Feb 17, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 17 Feb 05:01

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models remain in reasonable large-scale agreement early in the period, with progression of a cold front across the central and eastern U.S. through the first half of the period. This frontal progression is expected to occur as several short-wave pieces of a long-wave western U.S. trough break off, and eject across the eastern half of the country -- dampening as they encounter stout/persistent ridging off the southeastern U.S. coast. With time, the complexity of the upper system evolution becomes manifest within the models -- via increasing spread/solution inconsistency. With each of the ejecting upper waves dampening with time as they progress through the more confluent flow field over the eastern states, large-scale ascent will remain muted to some degree near and ahead of the surface cold front. This -- combined with meager warm-sector instability, and the expectation that stronger deep-layer flow will substantially lag the surface frontal position, all combine to suggest that severe potential will remain quite limited with frontal/pre-frontal convection. As such, no outlook areas will be included at this time, despite poential that low-probability risk areas which may be required in later/shorter-term outlooks. Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

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