Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day two (16 Feb) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 14/0912Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2152Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/2137Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb Class M 10/05/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Feb 075 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 075/074/073 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 020/028-014/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 30/25/10 Major-severe storm 10/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 60/55/30