SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 14 Feb 02:33

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... Positively tilted upper troughing over the western CONUS is forecast to develop eastward across the Plains on Day 2/Thursday. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level winds will persist across roughly the eastern two-thirds of the country as an upper ridge becomes suppressed over the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, an area of low pressure will likely be centered over western KS at the start of the period, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the southern High Plains. This surface low should develop southeastward in tandem with a cold front, reaching the vicinity of the eastern TX/OK Panhandles by Thursday evening. An area of high pressure should develop over the northern Great Basin with large-scale subsidence occurring behind the upper trough. ...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains... Elevated conditions may occur across parts of the central/southern High Plains in advance of the cold front and surface low mentioned above. Sustained westerly winds of 15-25 appear likely, although RH values may struggle to fall much below 20% due to widespread mid/upper-level cloudiness limiting surface heating. Still, favorable low-level trajectories suggest at least some downslope warming/drying will occur Thursday afternoon, and the potential for RH values falling as low as 18-20% is enough for an elevated delineation extending from parts of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO into the TX/OK Panhandles, far southwestern KS, and northwestern OK. The lack of an even warmer/drier low-level airmass precludes a critical area. ...Portions of Southern CA... The surface pressure gradient is forecast to modestly strengthen across portions of southern CA beginning Thursday evening and continuing through early Friday morning. This should promote an increase in northeasterly offshore winds for parts of the coastal ranges and adjacent foothills. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear likely, with some higher gusts up to 40 mph possible. Downslope warming/drying processes should act to lower RH values into the 10-20% range overnight. There is some potential for light precipitation across portions of southern CA on Day 1/Wednesday as an upper low moves northeastward and becomes absorbed into large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS. Regardless, precipitation amounts are forecast to be light, and these meteorological conditions support the introduction of a small elevated area since fuels are expected to remain receptive to large fire starts/spread. ..Gleason.. 02/14/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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