SPC Feb 14, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 14 Feb 01:03

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm coverage is currently expected to be too sparse for an outlook area across the continental United States on Thursday ...Synopsis... Several subtle, low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within the enhanced southwesterly flow aloft extending across the CONUS (from the Southwest states to southern New England) will progress quickly eastward/northeastward during the period. At the same time, a more substantial trough will move from the Intermountain West through the Plains. Surface pattern will feature a low moving quickly northeastward from the lower MO Valley across the OH Valley and into southern New England. A strong cold front attendant to this low (and encouraged southward by the upper trough moving through the Plains) will move southward/southeastward through the central Plains and upper/mid MS valleys. By 12Z Friday, this front is expected to extend southwestward from a low over southern New England all the way to the TX South Plains/Permian Basin. Airmass ahead of the front will be anomalously moist. PW values will likely be near 1.20 to 1.30 inches, which are near-record values (based on SPC sounding climatology) for much of the region. Surface dewpoints will likely be in the upper 50s/low 60s. Even so, instability will be limited warm temperatures aloft and resulting poor lapse rates. Some shallow convection is possible along the front, particularly late in the period over and in the vicinity of the Ozark Plateau, but updraft depth is not expected to favor lightning production. ..Mosier.. 02/14/2018 Read more



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