SPC Feb 13, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Feb 14:38

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Low-level warm advection is expected to increase from TX into southern MO as LLJ strengthens and veers into this region. Scattered convection, with isolated thunderstorms, persists across east TX and this activity should gradually spread/develop northeast across the Arklatex into the evening hours. 1630z outlook reflects this scenario well, thus no changes are warranted at this time. ..Darrow.. 02/13/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018/ ...East Texas to Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley... A weak sub-tropical disturbance and increasing elevated moisture transport today should yield a gradual northeastward shift of isolated thunderstorms from east Texas across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley tonight. A couple stronger elevated storms are possible this evening and tonight, but only a modest combination of buoyancy and effective shear is likely to preclude large hail production. ...North-central Florida Peninsula... While 12Z observed soundings generally reflect subsidence inversions aloft, will maintain low probabilities (around 10 percent) for the possibility of a few thunderstorms along a southward-sagging front. Read more



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