SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Feb 14:24

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/13/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018/ ...Synopsis... A closed upper low off the coast of southern CA will become absorbed within a southern stream jet across much of the southern/central CONUS on Day 2/Wednesday as an upstream perturbation moves southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Basin through the period. Enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds of 50-65 kt will overspread the southern/central High Plains by Wednesday afternoon. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the central High Plains as large-scale ascent preceding the previously mentioned upper low moves across this region. A surface trough will extend southward from the low across the southern High Plains, and the pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen through the day over these areas. ...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains... Sustained west-southwesterly winds will strengthen into generally the 15-25 mph range by early Wednesday afternoon from parts of eastern NM into southeastern CO, southwestern KS, the TX/OK Panhandles, and northwestern OK as the enhanced mid-level winds mentioned above reach the surface through diurnal mixing/heating of the boundary layer. Higher gusts to 35-40 mph may occur. As temperatures warm well above normal (into the 70s), RH values will fall into mainly the 15-20% range for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon, supporting widespread elevated conditions across this region where fuels are dry/dormant. There will be some potential for critical fire weather conditions where RH values can fall below 15%. But, this may occur on just a brief/spotty basis for northeastern NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles with mid/high-level cloudiness streaming eastward from the upper low potentially limiting surface heating slightly. Will defer possible introduction of a critical area to a later update pending greater confidence in sufficient coverage and duration of sub-15% RH values. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html

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