SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Feb 2018

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 02/13/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018/ ...Synopsis... A closed upper low centered over CA/NV early this morning should develop only slowly southwestward through the period as an upstream shortwave trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A broad belt of enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will remain over the Southwest and southern/central Plains. At the surface, weak lee troughing is forecast to develop over the High Plains. ...Portions of the Southern/Central High Plains... Some disparity remains among short-term guidance regarding the strength of low-level winds today across parts of the southern and central High Plains. However, there is now enough of a signal for strong/gusty southwesterly winds around 15-20 mph this afternoon across parts of eastern NM into far southeastern CO, far southwestern KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles to include an elevated area. These surface winds would be mainly due to the enhanced mid-level flow present around 700-500 mb becoming mixed to the surface. RH values may become only marginally reduced to around 18-20% through peak heating, but this should still be sufficient to support elevated fire weather conditions across this region for a few hours in the afternoon. ...Portions of the Southwest... Locally strong/gusty southerly winds may occur this afternoon across parts of southeastern AZ into southern NM, with sustained wind speeds up to 15-20 mph. RH values may also become lowered to around 19-25% on an isolated basis across this area. However, the duration of these locally strong/gusty winds appears too limited in combination with the marginal reduction in RH values to warrant an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more



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