SPC Feb 13, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Feb 12:10

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will extend from the Arklatex into portions of the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday. ...Discussion... Significant upper-level high will remain anchored over the Gulf basin through the day2 period which will maintain a seasonally strong current of mid-level flow from the Four Corners region, arcing across the central Plains into the Ohio Valley. This flow regime will favor a modified moist plume of higher PW air to advect across east TX/LA into the TN/lower OH Valley region along the anticyclonic side of a strengthening LLJ. In the absence of appreciable height changes, it appears low-level warm advection will be the primary forcing mechanism for convection along this corridor Wednesday. Latest model guidance suggests convection will be ongoing at the start of the period from the Arklatex into the TN Valley where elevated buoyancy will likely be sufficient for lightning production in the stronger updrafts. This activity should spread/develop northeast during the day. Forecast soundings depict adequate buoyancy for thunderstorms if lifting parcels near 850mb (a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE). While deep-layer shear would support storm organization, weak mid-level lapse rates and instability should limit updraft intensity and severe probs will not be introduced this period. ..Darrow.. 02/13/2018 Read more



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