SPC Feb 13, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

By Newsroom America Feeds at 13 Feb 2018

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will increase from the middle Texas coast into the lower and middle Mississippi Valley today into tonight. A couple of thunderstorms could also occur today across the north-central Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Split upper-level flow will prevail over the western CONUS as a southern-stream low retrogrades southwestward off the coast of California, all while a stream of moderately fast confluent upper-level flow prevails east of the Rockies. ...East Texas to Lower/Middle Mississippi River Valley... A weak sub-tropical disturbance and increasing elevated moisture transport today should yield a gradual northeastward expansion of thunderstorms from east Texas and the Ark-La-Tex and especially tonight into the lower/middle Mississippi River Valley. A few stronger elevated thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out later today, but only modest combinations of buoyancy and effective shear is likely to preclude meaningful hail production and severe storms are not expected. ...North-central Florida Peninsula... While morning (12z) observed soundings generally reflect subsidence inversions aloft, will maintain low probabilities (near 10 percent) for the possibility of a few thunderstorms generally near a stalled front. ..Guyer.. 02/13/2018 Read more

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html

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