Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

By Newsroom America Feeds at 11 Feb 17:01

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/0048Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 11/1200Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Feb 078 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10


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