Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (07 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 06/0601Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2338Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 221 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun, 09 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 06 Jun 075 Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 075/075/072 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10